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01/12/2012 - Short-term correction in Risk Assets

  Equity Market Overview 2011 proved to be one of the most volatile years on record. While the simple turning of a calendar page doesn't necessarily presage a change in the market's inclination towards wild gyrations, such volatility won't l...

12/5/2011 - Short-term Positive Seasonals vs. Higher Intermediate-term Risks

Equity Market Overview The outlook for the global equity markets remains tenuous. Last month I indicated that a correction seemed likely. Markets did decline about 10% yet have recouped nearly all of those losses in just a few days following...

11/4/2011 - Higher Short-term Risks

  Equity Market Overview The outlook for the global equity markets remains tenuous. The October rally and the recent unprecedented volatility strike me as having the characteristics of a bear market rally rather than a healthy bull market a...

10/7/2011 - Final Bear Market Lows NOT Yet Reached

    Equity Market Overview The outlook for the global equity markets remains negative. For the quarter ended September 30th global equity indexes posted losses of 15-20% or more. With the exception of investment grade bonds, few assets cla...

9/2/2011 - Rebound Rally Complete, Next Bear Leg Down Underway

Equity Market Overview The outlook for the global equity markets remains negative. The expected relief rally I mentioned last month has occurred and appears to be complete. It appears that the equity markets have now started another down leg. ...

8/8/2011 Rebound Rally Likely but Bear Market Rules Apply

  Equity Market Overview The outlook for the global equity markets has turned negative. Tremendous technical damage has occurred in the past two weeks. Given the 10-15% declines in most indexes it is probable that some relief rally may occur i...

7/1/2011 - Predicted Summer Rally Underway

Equity Market Overview My long-term outlook for the market remains positive. Last month I predicted that investors were are about to enjoy an excellent summer rally. After some backing and filling through June the markets established a tena...

6/3/2011 - Equities Poised for Significant Summer Rally

Equity Market Overview My long-term outlook for the market remains positive. The short and intermediate term outlooks are also quite excellent right now. We are about to enjoy an excellent summer rally. Two factors lead me to conclude that ...

5/10/2011 - Leadership Change to Large-Caps Coming - What is Means....

Equity Market Overview My long-term outlook for the market remains positive. The recent correction in equities and commodities has alleviated some of the speculative fever and will allow equities to push higher still. The most interesting th...

4/15/2011 - Long-term outlook bullish but consolidation likely

Equity Market Overview My long-term outlook for the market remains positive. The nearer term outlook suggests a modest correction or continued consolidation. One gauge of investor sentiment published by Investors Intelligence suggests that i...

3/4/2011 - Equity Rally Looks Healthy

Equity Market Overview After a significant rally, the tendency is to start looking for its end. Admittedly, I've remained curious about the resiliency of this rally in the face of questionable market internals. However, the most bullish thi...

2/4/2011 - US Leading the Way...but where?

Equity Market Overview The most remarkable aspect of recent equity market action is its resiliency in the face of continually weakening market internals. The equity market's internal strength, as measured by the number of New Highs, peaked ...

12/6/2010 - Elevated Bullish Sentiment + Tepid Market Internals = Higher Risk

    Equity Market Overview In the last issue, several weeks ago, I suggested that we were likely at the leading edge of the first serious test of the market rally that began in late August. Well, we got a decent correction and now the broad...

11/12/2010 - Sentiment and Market Internals Suggest Correction or Consolidation

Equity Market Overview We are likely at the leading edge of the first serious test of the market rally that began in late August. The weekly sentiment survey from AAII has spiked to the highest levels of bulls (those expecting higher prices) i...

10/1/2010 - Sentiment and Market Internals Suggest Higher Prices

Equity Market Overview While the broad equity markets have made modest gains over the past twelve months, it's been anything but a smooth ride. Volatility has continually increased. Unlike other rally attempts in June and July, however, th...

9/3/2010 - ...More of the Same

  Equity Market Overview 2010 has been a wild ride so far and the indications are that the roller-coaster will continue. Today a dichotomy exists between investor sentiment and the market's internal technical condition. Weekly sentiment su...

7/2/2010 - Something's Afoul...

    Equity Market Overview I wrote in both a Special Report of late May and in my last report of June 4th that the technical and sentiment indications suggested an intermediate-term rally of significance. While the market was able to develop...

6/4/2010 - All Indications Point to Higher Equity Prices through Summer

    Equity Market Overview As I wrote last Friday in a special bulletin, the potential upside in equities is significant. By all measures, public and advisory sentiment have recently exhibited some of the most extreme readings that have hist...

5/27/2010 - SPECIAL ALERT: MAJOR BOTTOM IN PLACE - SUMMER RALLY AHEAD

Equity Market Overview A full report is forthcoming next Friday as the first Friday of the month. However, I felt it was imperative to write today as the potential upside in equities is significant. As I have written many times, it is the...

5/7/2010 - Forecast of Decline to February Lows Spot-on, Re-test of Lows Likely

Equity Market Overview The opening paragraph of my last newsletter read "Since the start of the year I have repeatedly suggested that the equity markets would be mired in a trading range. In my February 5th issue, I indicated that the bottom...